Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Wednesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is slightly lower. Crude oil is sharply higher and retesting highs from late January. Stock futures are higher amid strong labor data.
CORN
March corn finished unchanged at $4.28 ¾ yesterday following the USDA’s WASDE report.
The USDA surprised the trade with a sharp increase in the export forecast, pulling ending stocks lower than expected. We made the argument for an increase in the export forecast last week, given the previous pace before the report.
The 2025/26 carryout is now less burdensome, but it is by no means bullish due to strong supplies. That is likely why the price action was disappointing to some after corn struggled to hold onto gains from the day.
The USDA confirmed on Wednesday the flash sale of 230,560 MT of corn sold to unknown buyers.
Conab will release its updated Brazilian corn crop forecast on Thursday, where a small increase is expected for the production estimate.
SOYBEANS
Speculative short-covering continued in the soybean market this week and seemed to be unhindered by yesterday’s WASDE report. March soybeans traded another 11.75 cents higher on Tuesday to close at $11.22 ½ a bushel.
Open interest dropped by 22,400 in the March contract alone. The path of least resistance remains up for the meantime following last week’s upside breakout.
President Trump and Xi officially confirmed an in-person meeting in April. The USDA offered no changes to the U.S. balance sheet based on the potential of China buying more U.S. beans. The agency said increases in purchases from China will likely be offset by lower demand from the rest of the world.
The USDA raised its Brazilian soybean production forecast to 180 MMT, up 2 MMT from the previous estimate. The market has been unable to grab a hold of a bullish weather story out of South America due to strong production estimates.
Conab is expected to raise its soybean production forecast tomorrow after lowering it last month. The USDA is currently about 4 MMT higher on its forecast compared to Conab.
WHEAT
Wheat futures struggled to hold onto their gains on Tuesday following the WASDE. Still, March Chicago wheat closed only 0.50 cents lower at $5.28 ¼. Prices had moved higher again during the overnight session but ran into selling pressure at the 100-day moving average.
The USDA left the U.S. balance sheet mostly unchanged this month after raising the 2025/26 ending stocks forecast by 5 million bushels to 931 million. Stocks are projected to rise 9 percent compared to a year ago.
U.S. wheat export demand remains good, but it has struggled to offset large U.S. supplies amid strong global competition. The global balance sheet tightened up slightly from last month. World ending stocks are still projected to be the highest in about five years.
The market continues to monitor soil moisture in the U.S. Plains. Much of the South is expected to receive heavier rainfall over the next few days, which could extend into winter wheat areas.
—
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.