Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to push lower, driven primarily by gains in the Japanese yen following a major election. Crude oil is higher and extending gains from yesterday.
CORN
March corn traded in a narrow range on Monday, closing 1.50 cents lower at $4.28 ¾. Prices extended losses from Friday after rejecting a move back into the old sideways trading range.
The USDA will release its February WASDE report today at 11am CT. We released a full breakdown of market expectations yesterday. A quick snapshot of Bloomberg’s analyst survey predicts a slight reduction in the 2025/26 carryout forecast.
The USDA isn’t expected to adjust the U.S. balance sheets much this month. Ending stocks remaining above 2 billion bushels is not a bullish factor for the market.
A larger focus may be on the developing South American crops. Again, large changes are not expected for those numbers, but the USDA has a higher forecast for Argentina’s corn crop compared to numbers directly from the country.
SOYBEANS
Quiet trade also dominated the soybean market on Monday, with the March contract trading just 4.50 cents lower to $11.10 ¾ a bushel.
Soybean oil futures traded just below their contract highs this morning. Much of the recent rally has been driven by speculative short-covering. There has likely been expectations of better demand after inventories recovered substantially over the past few months.
Today’s WASDE is expected to show minimal chances to the U.S. soybean balance sheet. Ending stocks could remain unchanged at 350 million bushels. The export forecast will be a question mark on if the USDA adjusts the estimate after President Trump said China could buy another 8 MMT of soybeans this season.
However, China buying more U.S. beans could price other importers out of the market.
Analysts expect a 1.2 MMT increase in Brazil’s soybean production forecast to 179.2 MMT. The USDA is currently higher than Conab’s estimate of 176.12 MMT. Argentina’s soybean forecast is expected to remain unchanged at 53 MMT.
WHEAT
March Chicago wheat continued its selling on Monday after posting a reversal day on Friday. Prices traded 1 cent lower at $5.28 ¾. Open interest has been dropping in the wheat market since their short-covering rally in mid to late January.
The market quickly ran out of momentum from production concerns, causing prices to pull back below key technical levels. The bullish news quickly dried up, and this week’s WASDE is not expected to hold bullish surprises.
Like corn and soybeans, today’s WASDE is expected to bring little change to the U.S. wheat balance sheet. Ending stocks are expected to decline by 8 million bushels to 918 million.
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