Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is higher as it continued its modest recovery from the lowest in nearly four years. Crude oil is slightly lower following this week’s surge. Stock futures continued to back off their highs.
CORN
March corn traded a modest 0.75 cents higher on Thursday to close at $4.30 ¾ after struggling to hold intraday highs for a second session. Prices have retraced about 50 percent of their losses from the report day washout that took futures to the lowest in nearly five months.
The market has been showing more resilience over the past week, as minor pullbacks have found buyers. However, prices may struggle to move back into their tighter trading range above $5.35.
U.S. ethanol exports continued to operate at a record in November. Year-to-date shipments now total 1.96 billion gallons, and are on pace to exceed 2 billion gallons for the first time.
Rainfall reached parts of western Buenos Aires and southern Córdoba, helping to improve soil moisture for late-planted corn in Argentina. Corn crop conditions continued to decline, with just 46 percent of the crop in good/excellent condition, compared to 52 percent last week.
SOYBEANS
March soybeans closed 2.75 cents lower at $10.72 ¼ on Thursday after rejecting a move above resistance for a second session. Poor closes the past two days set the market up for weaker trade headed into Friday’s session.
Soybean oil has been losing steam for its recent rally, with prices rolling over the past couple of sessions. Much of the rally had been driven by speculative short-covering amid an unwillingness to hold shorts ahead of key biofuel announcements.
The Brazilian real rallied to nearly a two-year high, helping improve export competitiveness for non-China buyers. Yesterday’s export sales data showed that soybean exports and commitments remain low compared to previous years, but demand from non-China countries is at a seven-year high.
Soybean conditions continued to deteriorate in Argentina, with 47 percent of the crop in good/excellent condition, down from 53 percent last week. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said additional rainfall in key areas is needed as a third of the soybean crop enters critical stages.
WHEAT
March Chicago wheat traded 5.50 cents higher on Thursday, and closed near the top end of its daily range at $541 ½. Higher trade over the past few sessions has been driven mostly by speculative short-covering.
Futures are headed for their best month of gains in nearly two years amid a weaker dollar and recent crop concerns. Worries over frost damage helped lift futures to the highest in about two months.
Zooming out, it’s unclear how long the bullish sentiment will last, as there are no clear signals for significant downgrades in the global supply outlook. Weak fundamentals remain in place following record harvests across the globe.
—
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.