The USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks report on Monday showed that Dec. 1 corn inventories totaled 13.28 billion bushels, up 10 percent year-over-year. On-farm bushels totaled 8.70 billion bushels, 14 percent higher than a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 4.58 billion bushels, up 4 percent from December 2024.
Total disappearance between September and November was 5.29 billion bushels, up 15.5 percent from a year earlier. Demand has outperformed expectations, but the USDA continued to find additional corn acres, along with surprisingly high yields.
U.S. corn exports are running 61 percent higher than a year ago, while corn ethanol crush is up about half of a percent. But the USDA projecting 2025 corn production at a record 17 billion bushels suggests strong stocks.
Total stocks in Iowa and Illinois saw similar increases during the quarter, with combined stockpiles up 2.8 percent at 4.32 billion bushels. On-farm storage was higher, while off farm bushels were lower compared to a year ago.
Dec. 1 soybean stockpiles totaled 3.30 billion bushels, up 6 percent from December 2024. Soybean stocks held on farms were up 2 percent at 1.58 billion bushels. Off-farm storage was 10 percent higher at 1.71 billion. On-farm storage accounted for 48 percent of total stocks.
Soybean utilization during the quarter was just 1.30 billion bushels, marking a 20 percent decline from the previous year. Crush demand has been strong, but lower exports, particularly to China, were the primary reason for higher stocks.
Crush is expected to be a record this season. However, exports are projected to decline 16 percent from last season despite recent buying from China. The country has bought a confirmed 7.53 MMT of U.S. soybeans for this season, according to USDA data, but volumes are well below historical averages.
All wheat stocks as of Dec. 1 were 1.675 billion bushels, up 7 percent from a year ago. About 446 million bushels were held on farms, down 4 percent from December. However, off-farm storage rose by 11 percent from last year to 1.23 billion bushels.
Disappearance during the quarter totaled 459 million bushels, up 9 percent from a year ago. Wheat experienced the same situation as corn. Demand is up, but so are total supplies. As a whole, U.S. wheat supplies have been trending higher for the past few seasons. We aren’t quite as high as levels seen in 2016/17, but year-over-year data has been painting a picture of a more burdensome outlook.
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