Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is sharply higher. Crude oil extended its gains overnight. Stock futures are also higher.
CORN
March corn was steady on Thursday after trading 0.75 cents lower to $4.46. Prices held in the middle of their trading range as the market awaits Monday’s data dump. This week’s gains have been driven by speculative short-covering. There seems to be an unwillingness to hold positions ahead of Monday’s volatile trade.
Anticipation for next week’s reports will likely overshadow other news today for the grain markets. We posted the pre-report survey estimate from Bloomberg yesterday in the Market Intelligence page. Check that out to get a full snapshot of market expectations ahead of those reports.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s corn planting reached 89 percent complete, which was 3.2 percentage points behind last year’s pace. The exchange noted that the lack of rainfall in primary growing areas is beginning to affect crops amid signs of declining moisture conditions.
Ukraine’s grain exports fell nearly 25 percent in December amid increased Russian airstrikes on port infrastructure. Corn exports were down 16 percent, also partially caused by lower available supplies due to delayed harvest.
SOYBEANS
March soybeans traded 5.75 cents lower to $10.61 ¼ on Thursday. Prices have been consolidating right below $10.70 as the market attempts to carve out a trading range.
Pre-report positioning could keep the market choppy ahead of Monday’s data dump.
The Supreme Court today will rule on the legality of President Trump’s global tariffs. The administration could lose some of its leverage in global trade if the court strikes down Trump’s use of the International Economic Emergency Power Act.
The USDA reported on Friday that private exporters sold 198,000 MT of soybeans to unknown buyers for the 2025/26 marketing year.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s soybean planting reached 88 percent complete. Overall, 85 percent of the crop is receiving optimal to adequate moisture conditions.
WHEAT
March Chicago wheat futures continued their short-covering on Thursday. However, gains stopped short of the $5.25 resistance level before closing unchanged at $5.18 a bushel.
The area of U.S. winter wheat under drought increased to 42 percent this week, compared to just 24 percent a year ago. The market could be taking notice of drying conditions amid milder and drier weather this winter.
U.S. Census data released yesterday confirmed strong wheat exports in October, which totaled 1.964 MMT for the month, well ahead of last year.
With the harvest nearly complete, Argentina’s wheat crop is expected to have reached 27.8 MMT this season, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The USDA could factor that increase in Monday’s WASDE by raising global production and/or ending stocks.
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