Grains and oilseeds are higher on Wednesday, reversing yesterday’s late-session losses. The U.S. dollar is mostly steady after pushing higher on Tuesday. Crude oil extended losses overnight amid recent volatility. Stock futures are steady to higher after the Dow hit new contract highs yesterday and this morning.
CORN
March corn closed nearly unchanged on Tuesday after reversing gains from earlier in the session. Prices continued to trade about mid-range since defending support levels to start this week.
Corn is testing the 200-day moving average, which has contained prices during sideways trade from the past two months.
The EIA will release the latest ethanol production data later this morning. Output has been running at a record this season amid larger supplies and strong export demand.
Above-average rainfall is expected to reach prime corn growing regions in Argentina over the next 7-10 days. Precipitation has been well below average over the past two weeks, so developing crops will be welcoming the moisture.
Forecasts favor Brazil’s soybean harvest and allow crops to be collected on time. That favors the upcoming Safrinha corn planting.
SOYBEANS
Like corn, soybeans rebounded in the overnight session after failing to hold onto gains Tuesday.
China is said to have bought at least 10 MMT of soybeans so far for the 2025/26 marketing year, according to StoneX and anonymous traders. The question is when will those bushels get shipped, as the prime U.S. export window is in the rearview mirror.
Brazil is harvesting soybeans, so logistics may become an issue for cargoes bound for China.
Large demand remains for soybean meal exports. Total exports and commitments continue to run at a record pace for the 2025/26 season. Meal demand has helped support domestic crushings. Soybean oil demand has been softening, driving inventories well above year-ago levels.
WHEAT
March Chicago wheat traded 2 cents lower on Tuesday, pausing short-covering from Monday’s rally. Futures rallied again overnight in an attempt to establish a low in the market.
More short-covering could be in play, given the large short position speculators hold. Market fundamentals remain bearish, but moving past a negative supply and demand outlook will be key for the market to hold the $5 level.
Next week’s data dump will include U.S. winter wheat plantings for this year, which will set the stage for the upcoming season ahead of the March Prospective Plantings report.
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