Grains and oilseeds are lower on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar fell overnight but failed to support the grain markets. Crude oil is sharply higher in an attempt to reverse Friday’s losses. Stock futures are lower.
CORN
March corn futures attempted an upside breakout above $4.50 on Wednesday, which did trigger additional buying above resistance on Friday. However, a lack of follow-though drove prices back into the consolidation range into Friday’s close and early this morning.
Futures still closed 6.25 cents higher last week despite Friday’s reversal. Trading volume was fairly light last week amid the holiday trade, which could be the case for part of this week with markets closed on Thursday for New Years.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s corn planting reached 77.7 percent complete, supported by favorable moisture conditions for crop development.
SOYBEANS
Soybean futures halted their selling last week following three consecutive weeks of declines. The March contract struggled to climb back above October’s breakaway gap, leaving prices in their previous consolidation range established almost a year ago.
The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 100,000 MT of soybeans to Egypt for the 2025/26 marketing year.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that Argentina’s soybean planting is nearly complete, with progress finishing up in some areas where significant rainfall was recorded. Overall, conditions remain favorable for crop development due to adequate soil moisture.
WHEAT
Wheat futures rallied last week, with KC wheat leading the rebound. March prices climbed 18.25 cents a bushel before finding resistance at the 100-moving average. The indicator has been a key level of resistance for the past couple of months.
Chicago futures experienced modest weekly gains after posting fresh contract lows the week before. Some of that buying was driven by speculative short-covering. Speculators still hold a sizable short position in the wheat market, which does make prices vulnerable to additional short covering. However, there is additional room for funds to continue adding shorts.
A private Russian firm raised its Russian wheat forecast to 91.4 MMT, well above SovEcon’s 88.8 MMT and the USDA’s 87.5 MMT estimates.
Argentina’s wheat harvest continued to progress ahead of the five-year average last week. Eight-four percent of the crop was harvested, with strong yield reports still coming in. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange kept its production forecast unchanged at a record 27.1 MMT.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.