Grains and oilseeds are higher on Monday following the overnight to begin the holiday-shortened week. Grain and livestock markets will close early on Wednesday and resume trading normal hours at 8:30 am CT on Friday.
CORN
March corn futures rallied again overnight and pushed to the upper end of its trading range. Prices may find overhead resistance around $4.50 could limit gains this week. Lighter holiday trade this week could keep prices rangebound.
The rumor that China bought a few cargoes of U.S. corn was not confirmed in the morning flash sales reports on Friday or this morning. They could still appear tomorrow morning. Or, if the individual sales were small enough, they could avoid triggering a flash sales announcement.
As the CFTC continues to catch up on its Commitment of Traders data reporting, managed money has been relatively neutral in the corn market since mid-November. That could leave room for funds to build a long position.
SOYBEANS
March futures bounced higher overnight following six consecutive sessions of losses. The soybean market has struggled to find support since closing the late October gap created by the Trump-Xi meeting.
The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 396,000 MT of soybeans to China. Of the total, 66,000 MT were bought for the 2026/27 marketing year. Flash sales and catch-up data show that China is confirmed to have bought about half of the 12 MMT pledge.
Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural raised its 2025/26 soybean production forecast to 180.4 MMT, which is the highest estimate among government and private forecasters. The firm noted that some farmers have begun harvesting the soybean crop.
The start of Brazil’s soybean harvest could continue to pressure soybean prices, as there have been few weather threats for the crop this season.
WHEAT
March Chicago wheat futures bounced higher overnight as prices held above last week’s fresh contract lows. Prices stabilized above $5 a bushel, which will likely serve as psychological support.
The Kansas City wheat contract has been outperforming Chicago wheat lately and has returned to its typical premium.
Wheat exports out of Russia are expected to be slower this month compared to a year ago. Global wheat prices have been steady over the past month, with the possibility that bearish news is beginning to get priced in.
—
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.