Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Monday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to push lower overnight, which favors U.S. export pricing. Weakness persisted in the crude oil market, with prices trading at a 1-month low. Stock futures are recovering following Friday’s sharp losses.
CORN
March corn futures broke out of their tight consolidation range on Friday after trading 5.75 cents lower to $4.40 ¾. Open interest rose slightly on Friday, while volume also climbed, in support of the selling. The next support level is the November low around the $4.35 level.
Weak crude oil could also be weighing on corn this morning. Ethanol production remains at a lofty pace, but exports are needed to keep ethanol moving with record production.
The corn demand story remains at the top of mind. The latest export sales data released for the week ending Nov. 20 showed that total exports and commitments are 31 percent higher than the previous season and the fastest in more than a decade.
The USDA confirmed on Monday that private exporters sold 150,320 MT of corn to unknown buyers for the 2025/26 marketing year.
SOYBEANS
Weakness continued in the soy complex on Friday, with January soybean futures losing 16.75 cents. Prices closed below the 100-day moving average for the first time since mid-October, when the market was anticipating a trade deal between the U.S. and China.
A test of the gap between $10.63 and $10.70 remains a possibility. The March contract is taking over as the most active, with the gap between $10.76 and $10.83.
The National Oilseeds Processors Association will release its latest U.S. soybean crush data for November later this morning. Pre-report estimates expect that crush likely fell from an all-time high set the previous month, but crush could still be a record for November.
The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold another 136,000 MT of soybeans to China for the current marketing year. That brings the confirmed total to 3.513 MMT, which is 26 percent of the 12 MMT target.
Rain made its way to southern Brazil over the weekend, which had been drier for the past month. South America continues to get the precipitation needed to have a decent crop this season.
WHEAT
Chicago wheat futures fell under pressure again on Friday, trading 4.25 cents lower to $5.29 ¼. Prices extended those declines overnight, with prices pushing to the lowest in over a month.
Strong global export competition continues to weigh on the market despite U.S. exports performing very well this season. Ample supplies in the southern hemisphere remain a negative factor for prices.
China is rumored to have bought some Argentine wheat for the first time in decades. Argentina’s prices are well below U.S. prices, so if China is bargain hunting, Argentina would be the place to go.
Russia and Ukraine continued to step up attacks on infrastructure despite ongoing peace talks, though the market has expressed little worry over the conflict recently.
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