Grains and oilseeds are lower Wednesday morning following yesterday’s WASDE report. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is steady. Stock futures are lower as the market pulls back from recent gains this week. The Federal Reserve is largely expected to cut the benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points today.
CORN
March corn futures posted a strong gain of 4.25 cents on Tuesday to close at $4.48 after the December WASDE report showed lower-than-expected corn ending stocks. Prices pushed back toward the upper end of their consolidation range.
Unsurprisingly, the USDA raised the corn export forecast in yesterday’s report to a new record of 3.2 billion bushels, though the increase was a little larger than expected. The agency noted that export inspections data during the September-November quarter likely exceeded 800 million bushels, surpassing the prior high set in 2007.
Yesterday’s report shows that demand could be slowing chewing through large supplies from this year’s harvest. The 2025/26 ending stocks forecast remained above 2 billion bushels, which is considered burdensome.
SOYBEANS
January soybean futures extended losses early on Tuesday and held onto lower prices following the report. Prices are quickly approaching the 100-day moving average. A close below that could mean a test of the gap between $10.63 and $10.70.
The USDA punted any supply and demand changes for the U.S. soybean balance sheet after leaving it unchanged this month. No much changes were offered for the global balance sheet, but the report continued to reflect large global supplies.
The USDA confirmed a large volume of flash soybean and product sales Wednesday morning. Sales include 136,000 MT of soybeans sold to China, 119,000 MT for unknown buyers, another 212,000 MT for unknown buyers, and 120,000 MT of soybean meal sold to Poland.
WHEAT
March Chicago wheat futures finished steady on Tuesday after closing just 0.25 cents lower at $5.34 ½. However, prices turned sharply lower overnight, breaking below their consolidation range.
The U.S. wheat balance sheet was also left unchanged this month, with no revisions to the export forecast. The USDA raised global wheat supplies by another sizable amount due to large harvests out of Canada and Argentina. Production estimates were also raised for Australia, Ukraine, and Russia.
Money managers remain heavily short the Chicago wheat market compared to the 10-year average. Traders had been exiting short positions through the first week of November, which had led to the three-month high. However, strong global competition likely capped the rally.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.