Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to work lower. Crude oil is higher following yesterday’s sharp losses. Stock futures are lower after the Dow hit new all-time highs on Wednesday.
The federal government will finally reopen today after the House successfully voted to send the bill to the president’s desk Wednesday evening. We expect a heavy amount of data flowing to the public over the next couple of weeks, including USDA export data and Commitment of Traders data.
CORN
December corn is up 1 cent at $4.36 ¼. March corn is down 0.25 cents at $4.49.
December futures gained another 3.25 cents on Wednesday and moved to the upper end of their range. Prices are approaching the $4.37 resistance, where a move above the level could trigger additional technical buying.
The USDA will release its WASDE report tomorrow. Be sure to check out the pre-report survey estimates already published on the app in Market Intelligence yesterday. The market is currently expecting lower corn yields but slightly higher ending stocks from the September report.
Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) raised its 2025/26 corn production forecast to 138.84 MMT, up 233,000 MT from the October estimate. The increase was due to higher-than-expected planted acreage. Output is still expected to be 1.6 percent lower than last season.
SOYBEANS
January soybeans are 7.75 cents higher at $11.41 ½. New crop November soybeans are up 3 cents at $11.18 ¾. Soybean oil and soybean meal are higher.
January futures pushed to the upper end of their range after a 6.50-cent gain on Wednesday. Prices continued to move higher in what appears to be an upside breakout. Prices may give back some of those gains when the morning session begins.
Prices have continued to perform welling, pushing to 17-month highs despite the lack of confirmation of China buying more U.S. soybeans. The government reopening will finally give us a better sense of potential buying.
Conab lowered its 2025/26 soybean production forecast slightly to 177.6 MMT compared to October. Output is still expected to be 3.6 percent higher than last year and a record. Conab said planting has not been done under ideal conditions for many areas.
WHEAT
March Chicago wheat is down 1 cent at $5.51 ½. KC wheat is down 1.50 cents at $5.40 ¼. Spring wheat is down 1 cent at $5.83 ¼.
Wheat markets were the most quiet out of the grains and oilseed yesterday. Prices recovered from an initial decline in the morning, with March Chicago futures closing just 0.75 cent higher. The $5.53 level continued to limit price gains, though an upside breakout in corn could help wheat climb through that level.
The market is likely trading more cautiously in anticipation of higher ending stocks out of tomorrow’s WASDE report.
The Rosario Grain Exchange maintained its record Argentine wheat forecast after hiking production expectations to 24.5 MMT, up 1.5 MMT from the previous estimate. Farmers continued to harvest fields this week.
France’s soft-wheat exports are expected to reach 15 MMT in the 2025/26 season, up 44.2 percent year-over-year. Stockpiles are projected at 2.83 MMT, according to FranceAgriMer.
—
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.