Winter wheat futures posted a slight recovery this week after finding new contract lows. December Chicago futures traded below $5 a bushel this week before climbing back above the key level. Meanwhile, KC wheat remains comfortably below $5, trading around $4.90 a bushel by midday on Friday. 

Speculators likely piled onto their short positions over the last month, though there is no Commitment of Traders data to confirm that. Large global wheat supplies continued to pressure U.S. wheat prices this week, as they hover around five-year lows. 

It will be difficult to tell if this week’s contract lows have drummed up bargain buying from other countries due to lack of export data. Global wheat stocks are plentiful, but lower prices have already sparked interest in U.S. wheat. 

The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia raised its wheat crop production forecast by nearly 1 MMT from the previous month to 12.63 MMT. Crop prospects continued to improve as timely rains reached crop areas in September. The organization expects the region’s wheat harvest to be the third-largest on record. 

Global wheat prices recovered this week after most competitors fell to their lowest in about a month on an FOB basis. U.S. HRW wheat export prices rose sharply this week.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.