Grains and oilseeds are lower on Tuesday following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar continued to work higher. Crude oil is sharply lower after struggling to trade back above $60 on Monday. Stock futures are lower.
CORN
December corn is down 1 cent at $4.09 ¾. March corn is down 1.25 cents at $4.26.
Corn futures continued to move lower on Monday amid a lack of willing buyers following Friday’s selloff. Prices traded down to the Oct. 1 support level of $4.10 ½, though prices closing at their lowest tick on Monday appears negative.
Lower energy prices and a strong U.S. dollar will serve as a headwind for the grain markets.
Better chances of precipitation are expected for parts of the Corn Belt this week to help alleviate drought conditions. Areas of North Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin could see totals adding up to an inch.
Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) forecasts the 2025/26 Brazilian corn crop at 138.6 MMT, slightly above the preliminary estimate of 138.3 MMT.
France’s agriculture ministry raised its corn production estimate to 13.5 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 13.3 MMT, though the 2025 harvest is still 7.5 percent below last year due to heat and drought.
SOYBEANS
November soybeans are 4.50 cents lower at $10.03 ¼. January soybeans are down 4.50 cents at $10.20 ¾. Soybean oil is lower following Monday’s moderate gains. Soybean meal is higher but struggled to hold onto overnight gains amid strong selling pressure.
Futures attempted to pause their selling on Monday after Friday’s double-digit losses. Soybean oil posted the strongest gains out of the soy complex, which helped support whole soybean futures. Bearish pressure continued to limit soybean meal gains due to strong global production.
Friday’s sharp selloff squeezed out weak long positions – traders who were not willing or unable to risk higher losses on their long positions. We are quickly approaching first notice day for the November contract.
Conab forecasts the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop at 177.6 MMT, which was slightly below the September preliminary estimate of 177.7 MMT. The agency said September rainfall allowed for quick planting compared to a year ago.
WHEAT
December Chicago wheat is down 3.50 cents at $4.93 ¼. KC wheat is down 2.75 cents at $4.78 ½. Spring wheat is down 0.75 cents at $5.50 ¾.
Chicago futures began the week at new contract lows and held below the $5 handle on Monday. Higher open interest from the downside breakout favors a continuation of the current trend.
The wheat complex failed to pump the brakes on selling pressure, with HRW and SRW futures posting new contract lows overnight. It remains clear that the market continues to search for a bottom before it can begin to build a base.
Commercial traders remain willing buyings, and speculators are more than happy to follow the trend lower.
France’s agriculture ministry slightly lowered its 2025 wheat crop production forecast to 33.2 MMT. The harvest is still expected to be 29 percent above the 2024 historical low and 4.3 percent higher than the five-year average.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.