Grains and oilseeds are steady to higher again on Wednesday as the federal government remains partially closed. The U.S. dollar continued to grind higher. Crude oil is sharply higher. Stock futures are working higher as well following yesterday’s losses.
CORN
December corn is up 0.75 cents at $4.20 ½. March corn is up 0.25 cents at $4.36 ½.
Futures continued to trade in a tight range this week due to the lack of market data. December futures did have a higher volume day on Tuesday, but were unable to hold onto gains after trading up to the 100-day moving average.
At this point, the chances of the USDA releasing an on-time WASDE are slim to none. Still, Bloomberg released its pre-report survey, where analysts would have expected a decrease in corn yields, while factoring in the higher ending stocks from the Quarterly Stocks report.
The EIA is still releasing ethanol data, with the latest numbers expected this morning. Ethanol production took a huge hit over the past few weeks, which has been seasonal. We will be watching for if processing picks up again as more corn becomes available with harvest.
Russian-based consultancy firm SovEcon raised its Ukrainian corn production forecast to 31.8 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 30.9 MMT. The country’s corn exports are off to their weakest start since the 2020/21 season, largely due to a lack of shipments to China.
SOYBEANS
November soybeans are up 3.50 cents at $10.25 ½. January soybeans are up 1.75 cents at $10.40 ¾. Soybean oil continued to push higher overnight. Soybean meal is moderately lower after recovering from sharper losses.
Futures trading higher for a third session. November futures have yet to clear the 100-day moving average, which contained prices last week. Soybean oil has been taking off and providing support for soybeans. Meal continues to be the weakest link in the complex due to bearish sentiment.
There will not be an updated yield forecast from the USDA this week due to the government shutdown. An analyst survey from Bloomberg expects the USDA would have lowered yields slightly from last month. But the average guess is not ready to let go of strong U.S. yields.
WHEAT
December Chicago wheat is up 0.25 cents at $5.07. KC wheat is down 0.50 cents at $4.91 ½. Spring wheat is down 0.25 cents at $5.51 ¾.
Chicago futures hit the lowest price since last Wednesday’s contract lows. Prices may test those lows again. Short-covering corrections have been smaller and smaller due to strong bearish sentiment.
The 6-10 NOAA forecasts call for above-average chances of precipitation through mid-October, benefiting soil moisture ahead of winter dormancy. Drought in the Central Plains has been less severe than in the Eastern Cornbelt. The market is likely taking note of better conditions.
Argentina’s wheat crop is developing very well. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported last week that 93 percent of the 2025/26 crop was in good to excellent condition, compared to just 35 percent last year.
SovEcon raised its 2025 Ukrainian wheat forecast to 22.9 MMT, up 1.5 MMT from the previous estimate. Wheat exports for July through September reached 4.7 MMT, down from 6.1 MMT last year.
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