Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday to wrap up the holiday-shortened week. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is lower again, as OPEC+ members are expected to increase production targets this weekend. Stock futures are steady to higher.
CORN
December corn is up 1.75 cents at $4.21 ½. March corn is up 1.75 cents at $4.39 ¼.
December futures traded 2.75 cents higher on Thursday after an initial move lower early in the session.
StoneX Group cut its U.S. corn yield estimate to 186.9 bpa, down from last month’s estimate of 188.1 bpa. However, total production was raised to 16.58 billion bushels, up from 16.32 billion.
We won’t have pre-report estimates until later next week, but there has been a lot of chatter leaning toward the USDA lowering corn yields in next week’s WASDE report. It’s certainly possible the agency could do so following a historically dry August.
It’s also possible that the yield could remain unchanged if USDA thinks great yields out of the Western Corn Belt will offset reductions in eastern states.
SOYBEANS
November soybeans are down 0.25 cents at $10.32 ¾. January soybeans are unchanged at 10.51 ½. Soybean oil is slightly lower, while soybean meal is higher.
Soybeans rebounded from their intraday lows on Thursday after facing pressure earlier in the session, leaving November soybeans 1.75 cents higher at the close. Selling pressure subsided in the product markets, allowing whole beans to move higher.
Though expanded crush capacity and proposals for higher biomass-based diesel blending could lead to a larger share of U.S. soybean oil used in future domestic biofuel production, delays in finalizing policy are keeping futures stuck near 51 cents.
StoneX lowered its U.S. soybean yield estimate to 53.2 bpa, down slightly from 53.6 bpa last month. Total production was lowered to 4.26 billion bushels, compared to last month’s 4.43 billion.
The USDA confirmed multiple flash sales of soybeans sold to unknown buyers for the 2025/26 marketing year. One sale was for 123,000 MT, and the other was for 204,650 MT.
WHEAT
December wheat is up 0.75 cents at $5.20 ¼. KC wheat is down 0.50 cents at $5.05 ¾. Spring wheat is down 1 cent at $5.71 ¼.
Contract lows in winter wheat lasted only a short period during the day session on Thursday before a lack of follow-through selling allowed for buyers to step in. Spring wheat struggled to find similar price action and consolidated most of the day, leaving futures 4 cents lower.
Weak prices have led to a large drop in wheat’s premium over corn, with the spread at just $1 for the December SRW wheat and corn contracts, compared to the summer peak of $1.68. That has been the result of a tighter global supply outlook for corn than wheat.
Continued rainfall in Argentina is raising production forecasts. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchanged said nearly all of the country’s wheat is in good/excellent condition.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.