Tag: Soybeans

Morning Grain Comments – September 8, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Monday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil caught a bid overnight amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Stock futures are higher.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 8, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Monday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil caught a bid overnight amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Stock futures are higher.

CORN

December corn is down 1.75 cents at $4.16 ¼. March corn is down 1.25 cents at $4.35 ¼.

December futures finished 1.75 cents lower on Friday. Prices had risen to a fresh one-and-a-half-month high early in the session before buying dried up and put the bear camp back in control going into the close.

The USDA’s WASDE report will be released on Friday. Yields are a large focus following a historically dry August, particularly for the Eastern Corn Belt. It’s possible the USDA may leave the national yield average unchanged or offer a slight reduction if the agency thinks yields in the Western Corn Belt are strong enough to offset declines.

A frost event occurred in the Upper Midwest over the weekend. While some crops could have been damaged, markets took little notice based on overnight price action.

Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural reported that 12 percent of the country’s summer corn crop was planted as of last week, compared to 15 percent a year ago.

SOYBEANS

November soybeans are up 1.25 cents at $10.28 ¼. January soybeans are up 1 cent at $10.46 ½. Soybean oil is higher. Soybean meal is lower.

November futures traded 6 cents lower on Friday after posting a strong reversal day on Thursday. Last week’s losses came from weak product prices, which led to negative price action in the entire soybean complex.

China is back to exporting soybeans at a record pace after taking in 12.27 MMT in August. None of that came from the U.S. China has likely been buying extra tonnage from Brazil as a buffer against the current trade war with the U.S.

AgRural reported that soybean planting for the 2025/26 season has begun in Parana, with 0.02 percent of the crop seeded, compared to zero percent last year.

Southern Brazil has been receiving beneficial rainfall, allowing farmers to begin planting early. More rain is needed in Mato Grosso before farmers get too fired up about getting in the fields.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is up 2.25 cents at $5.21 ½. KC wheat is up 2.50 cents at $5.07 ¾. Spring wheat is up 0.25 cents at $5.66 ¼.

Like corn, wheat futures started Friday off on a positive note but later weakened into the close and finished slightly lower for the session. Prices are testing the ice after posting fresh contract lows on Thursday, with the level so far holding.

Russia exported about 4.4 MMT of wheat in August, rebounding from lower levels the previous month, according to Rusagrotrans.

There have been some reports of unfavorable weather for the current spring wheat harvest in Central Russia, which could be causing quality issues. Meanwhile, dry conditions have been leading to unfavorable wheat planting conditions in parts of the Black Sea.

Still, SovEcon raised its 2025/26 wheat production estimate again to 86.1 MMT, compared to the previous estimate of 85.4 MMT.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
US corn exports finish August with solid sales

USDA’s latest export sales report showed record-setting new crop corn commitments and strong physical shipments, while soybeans lagged with the slowest new crop pace since 2019/20. Wheat sales and shipments are running well ahead of last year.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 5, 2025

The USDA released its latest export sales data Friday morning for the week ending Aug. 28.

CORN

Corn export sales for the 2024/25 marketing year were net negative of 280,900 metric tons (MT), a marketing year low. Mexico was still buying some old crop bushels, though they were mostly offset by reductions from unknown buyers.

New crop 2025/26 sales rose to 2.12 million metric tons (MMT), with volumes holding well above the five-year average. Mexico led the buying, followed by Colombia, and unknown destinations.

Outstanding sales for the upcoming marketing year rose to 20.89 MMT. Outstanding new crop sales for the 2025/26 season officially surpassed the 2021/22 season, marking a record pace for new crop sales.

Physical exports rose 52 percent last week to 1.74 MMT, the highest weekly print since mid-June. Mexico led the shipments, followed by Japan and Colombia.

Accumulated exports for the marketing year rose to 68.33 MMT, up 26.5 percent year-over-year.

SOYBEANS

Soybean export sales for the old crop year were a net negative of 23,800 MT. Buying from Vietnam and the Netherlands was largely offset by cancellations from unknown buyers, Mexico, and Taiwan.

New crop sales fell last week to 818,500 MT. Purchases were led by sales to unknown destinations and Mexico. New crop sales continued to move along below the five-year average, as China has zero sales for the upcoming season on the books.

Outstanding sales ahead of the new marketing year reached 8.05 MMT, 32 percent behind last year’s pace and the slowest pace since 2019/20.

Actual exports rose 12 percent last week to 457,000 MT, led by stronger shipments to Vietnam, Mexico, and the Netherlands. Total exports for the season remained 12 percent higher than a year ago at 49.75 MMT.

Soybean meal export sales softened for a second week to 141,400 MT, as old crop sales hit a marketing-year low ahead of the new season. New crop sales were below the five-year average for a second week.

Actual exports rose 57 percent to 311,600 MT, rebounding from disappointing shipments the previous week and rising well above the five-year average. Accumulated exports rose to 12.83 MMT, up 13 percent from the previous season.

WHEAT

Net wheat export sales fell last week to 313,000 MT for the 2025/26 marketing year. Nigeria was the top buyer for the week, followed by Mexico and the Philippines. Export sales of 5,500 MT for 2026/27 were reported for Mexico.

Exports fell 11 percent to 890,600 MT, which remained well above seasonal averages. Total shipments rose to 6.49 MMT, up 16 percent from the previous season.

Total wheat export commitments rose to 12.42 MMT, up about 21 percent from last year and the best pace since the 2020/21 marketing year.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – September 5, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday to wrap up the holiday-shortened week. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is lower again, as OPEC+ members are expected to increase production targets this weekend. Stock futures are steady to higher.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 5, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Friday to wrap up the holiday-shortened week. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is lower again, as OPEC+ members are expected to increase production targets this weekend. Stock futures are steady to higher.

CORN

December corn is up 1.75 cents at $4.21 ½. March corn is up 1.75 cents at $4.39 ¼.

December futures traded 2.75 cents higher on Thursday after an initial move lower early in the session.

StoneX Group cut its U.S. corn yield estimate to 186.9 bpa, down from last month’s estimate of 188.1 bpa. However, total production was raised to 16.58 billion bushels, up from 16.32 billion.

We won’t have pre-report estimates until later next week, but there has been a lot of chatter leaning toward the USDA lowering corn yields in next week’s WASDE report. It’s certainly possible the agency could do so following a historically dry August.

It’s also possible that the yield could remain unchanged if USDA thinks great yields out of the Western Corn Belt will offset reductions in eastern states.

SOYBEANS

November soybeans are down 0.25 cents at $10.32 ¾. January soybeans are unchanged at 10.51 ½. Soybean oil is slightly lower, while soybean meal is higher.

Soybeans rebounded from their intraday lows on Thursday after facing pressure earlier in the session, leaving November soybeans 1.75 cents higher at the close. Selling pressure subsided in the product markets, allowing whole beans to move higher.

Though expanded crush capacity and proposals for higher biomass-based diesel blending could lead to a larger share of U.S. soybean oil used in future domestic biofuel production, delays in finalizing policy are keeping futures stuck near 51 cents.

StoneX lowered its U.S. soybean yield estimate to 53.2 bpa, down slightly from 53.6 bpa last month. Total production was lowered to 4.26 billion bushels, compared to last month’s 4.43 billion.

The USDA confirmed multiple flash sales of soybeans sold to unknown buyers for the 2025/26 marketing year. One sale was for 123,000 MT, and the other was for 204,650 MT.

WHEAT

December wheat is up 0.75 cents at $5.20 ¼. KC wheat is down 0.50 cents at $5.05 ¾. Spring wheat is down 1 cent at $5.71 ¼.

Contract lows in winter wheat lasted only a short period during the day session on Thursday before a lack of follow-through selling allowed for buyers to step in. Spring wheat struggled to find similar price action and consolidated most of the day, leaving futures 4 cents lower.

Weak prices have led to a large drop in wheat’s premium over corn, with the spread at just $1 for the December SRW wheat and corn contracts, compared to the summer peak of $1.68. That has been the result of a tighter global supply outlook for corn than wheat.

Continued rainfall in Argentina is raising production forecasts. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchanged said nearly all of the country’s wheat is in good/excellent condition.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – September 4, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is sharply lower. Stock futures are mixed.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 4, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mixed on Thursday. The U.S. dollar is higher. Crude oil is sharply lower. Stock futures are mixed.

CORN
December corn is up 0.75 cents at $4.18 ¾. March corn is up 0.75 cents at $4.36 ¾.

Futures sold off on Wednesday as the recent short-covering rally dried up. Prices looked like they were going to trade up to and test the 100-day moving average, but failed to reach the level.

The U.S. corn crop has been maturing slightly behind the normal rate in the USDA’s Crop Progress report. Late-planted crops may benefit from recent rainfall in the eastern Corn Belt this week.

Reports of disease remained this week, likely adding support to the recent rally.

SOYBEANS
November soybeans are 6 cents lower at $10.25 ½. January soybeans are down 6 cents at $10.44. Soybean oil is lower after being pressured by crude oil prices. Soybean meal is lower.

Futures have fallen under pressure this week from lower soybean meal prices. Soybean oil struggling has also added pressure.

The November soybean contract broke below the 200-day moving average on Wednesday, and now the 100-day average overnight.

Dry areas in the southern and eastern Corn Belt are getting some rainfall this week, though it could be late for many crops following the historically dry August. Late-planted crops may benefit, which could be helping pressure soybean futures this week.

Rain is making its way into Southern Brazil this week, where farmers will begin planting soybeans soon.

WHEAT
December Chicago wheat is down 5.25 cents at $5.16 ¾. KC wheat is down 5 cents at $5.05 ¼. Spring wheat is down 1.50 cents at $5.71 ½.

Chicago futures fell under pressure again on Wednesday, with prices posting fresh contract lows overnight.

Large U.S. and global supplies remain an anchor to the wheat complex. Wheat has struggled to rally since the June 19 peak, leaving plenty of work for the market to bottom. The trend is clearly bearish, with KC wheat as the weak link.

Weekly spring wheat stocks in warehouses in the Northern Plains have been well above year-ago levels since early spring. Stocks are expected to rise over the next few weeks as harvest wraps up.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – September 3, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mostly lower on Wednesday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is sharply lower. Stock futures are mixed, with the S&P 500 trading higher.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 3, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are mostly lower on Wednesday morning following the overnight session. The U.S. dollar is lower. Crude oil is sharply lower. Stock futures are mixed, with the S&P 500 trading higher.

CORN
December corn is down 3.50 cents at $4.19 ½. March corn is down 3 cents at $4.37 ¾.

Futures extended gains on Tuesday following an initial lower start to the session that took December prices 2.75 cents higher on the day.

Corn exports continued to move at a historically strong pace last week, with inspections totaling 1.41 MMT, up 46 percent year-over-year.

U.S. corn ratings slipped lower last week, with 69 percent of the crop in good-to-excellent condition. That was down two percent from the previous week but higher than the 65 percent seen the same week last year.

SOYBEANS
November soybeans are down 3.50 cents at $10.37 ½. January soybeans are down 3.50 cents at $10.56. Soybean oil is lower. Soybean meal is lower.

November futures traded 13.50 cents lower on Tuesday, falling under pressure from soybean meal. Whole soybean prices have been trading at the upper end of a large range, with resistance around $10.60 a bushel.

Soybean oil traded higher on the day, though prices have been weaker lately due to concern about biofuel demand.

There are still some questions about how the EPA’s latest small refinery waiver exemptions will impact biofuel demand. Soybean oil used in U.S. renewable fuel production has recovered in the second quarter of this year, but has yet to recoup losses from the previous quarter.

The USDA confirmed that private exporters sold 185,000 MT of soybean meal to the Philippines for the 2025/26 marketing year.

U.S. soybean ratings declined by four percent last week to 65 percent good-to-excellent. Conditions were unchanged from the same week last year.

WHEAT
December Chicago wheat is 1.25 cents lower at $5.27. KC wheat is up 0.75 cents at $5.12. Spring wheat is down 2.75 cents at $5.71 ½.

Chicago futures pushed sharply lower on Tuesday before running out of sellers later in the session and closing 6 cents lower. Prices have been consolidating since early August, so far avoiding new contract lows, while KC prices remained the weakest.

The spring wheat harvest is well past the halfway mark, according to the USDA on Tuesday.

France milling wheat prices are the cheapest globally due to heightened competition in Europe. U.S. HRW wheat is the highest priced on an FOB basis. U.S. prices could continue to face pressure if European and Black Sea prices move lower.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Biofuel demand props up US soybean crush

U.S. soybean crush hit a record in July, rising six percent from last year as processors kept margins strong. With exports lagging, domestic crush drives demand, fueling tightening soybean oil supplies and keeping U.S. meal exports competitive globally.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 3, 2025

U.S. oilseed processors crushed 204.8 million bushels of soybeans in July, up six percent from last year, according to data from the USDA on Tuesday.

Crush volumes held at a record in July as margins continued to incentivize processors to move bushels through facilities. Crush margins fell sharply over the past week, though, as soybean oil and meal futures weakened, while whole soybean prices remained elevated.

Year-to-date crushings for the 2024/25 season reached 2.246 billion bushels, up nearly six percent year-over-year. Domestic crush is on track to meet the USDA’s target of 2.43 billion bushels, with volumes at 92 percent of the forecast.

Soybean oil inventories at the end of July stood at 1.87 billion pounds, down 6.7 percent year-over-year. Inventories held at multi-year lows, despite record crush.

Lower export demand for U.S. soybeans has increased reliance on domestic crush. U.S. soybean crush is forecast to increase in the upcoming season and represent 58 percent of total demand. Exports are forecast to account for just 39 percent of demand.

Strong crush volumes are expected to continue to meet soybean oil demand. Soybean oil used in renewable diesel production has been increasing this year since plummeting in January.

Soybean meal exports have been operating at an elevated level, as U.S. supplies remained competitive in the global marketplace.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.
Morning Grain Comments – September 2, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower following the long holiday weekend. Crude oil is higher. The U.S. dollar is higher, likely adding pressure to crop prices. Stock futures are sharply lower.

Written by

Dawson Schmitt

·

September 2, 2025

Grains and oilseeds are lower following the long holiday weekend. Crude oil is higher. The U.S. dollar is higher, likely adding pressure to crop prices. Stock futures are sharply lower.

CORN

December corn is down 3.25 cents at $4.17. March corn is down 2.25 cents at $4.35.

Futures are off to a weaker start on Tuesday, following Friday’s sharp rally to a one-month high. December futures started last week off on a weaker note before finishing 8.75 cents higher than the week before.

Prices have been working to shake off concerns over a record crop, as demand has helped chew through larger supplies.

An early look at Brazil’s upcoming summer crop season is bearish, as government weather models point toward an early start to the monsoon season.

SOYBEANS

November soybeans are down 13.50 cents at $10.41. January soybeans are down 12.75 cents at $10.59 ¾. Soybean oil is higher. Soybean meal is lower.

Futures saw strength heading into Friday’s close on the back of corn and wheat. Continued pressure in soybean meal futures led the complex lower out of the gate on Tuesday.

The USDA will report U.S. crush data for July this afternoon, which is expected to show a good print. Domestic crush has certainly been key to keeping demand from falling extensively, as exports have been waning compared to previous years.

WHEAT

December Chicago wheat is down 9.25 cents at $5.25. KC wheat is down 9.75 cents at $5.10. Spring wheat is down 9.25 cents at $5.70 ¾.

Futures took back gains overnight following Friday’s stronger trade. KC wheat futures have been an anchor, with plenty of bearish news in the global marketplace.

Australia’s government raised its 2025 wheat forecast to 33.8 MMT, up 10 percent from the previous quarter’s estimate in June. The crop is expected to be the fourth-largest on record, which will continue to compete for global exports.

Russian-based consultancy firm SovEcon raised its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast to 43.7 MMt, up 0.4 MMT from the previous estimate. The firm cited a relatively favorable crop forecast. Exports could struggle amid strong global competition.

Russia has been trying to gain access to China’s market to ship more winter wheat to the country. China has been reducing its wheat imports after domestic production recovered.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.