Tag: Canola

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  Statistics Canada raises 2025 wheat, canola production

  Statistics Canada raised 2025 wheat production to 36.62 MMT and canola output to 20.03 MMT, both above last year’s levels. Higher yields offset slightly lower acreage, aided by improved late-season rainfall across key growing regions.

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  September 18, 2025

  

  Statistics Canada raised its 2025 wheat production estimate to 36.62 million metric tons (MMT), up 1 MMT from the August estimate of 35.55 MMT. 

  The increase was due to higher production estimates for durum and spring wheat. Total production is expected to be nearly two percent higher than the previous season. The increase was the result of higher yields despite slightly lower acreage. 

  StatsCan raised its canola crop estimate to 20.03 MMT, up from the previous estimate of 19.94 MMT. Output was raised on better yields, which are expected to be 6.2 percent higher than the previous season. Total production is forecast to be 4.1 percent above last year. 

  

  Much of Canada’s major growing areas experienced above-normal precipitation throughout August. Dry pockets in Saskatchewan and Manitoba likely impacted wheat yields. Better rainfall in the final week of August helped boost vegetative health in those areas. 

  

  Statistics Canada said it uses yield modeling estimates with satellite imagery, measuring NDVI.

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  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

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  Canola consolidates with Canadian harvest underway

  November canola steadied near C$620 as harvest selling and weaker vegetable oil markets capped gains. Futures remain oversold, while Statistics Canada reported July stocks at the lowest level since 2021/22.

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  September 10, 2025

  Canola futures continued to consolidate this week after finding support. 

  November canola traded moderately higher on Wednesday, trading around C$620 per ton. 

  Long-term moving averages have been turning more bearish, with the 50-day crossing below the 100-day late last week. Momentum studies show futures are oversold. 

  Harvest pressure has likely been limiting gains in the canola market, with progress moving along in Saskatchewan and Alberta. Soybean oil has been trying to find its footing after a recent selloff, which has also pressured the vegetable oil markets. 

  Statistics Canada reported that canola stocks at the end of July totaled 1.6 million metric tons, down 51 percent from a year ago. That was the lowest July print since the 2021/22 marketing year.

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  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

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  Canola attempts to recover from weekly losses

  Canola futures rebounded slightly on Monday following a second week of losses. Prices are about 17 percent lower than their June peak of about C$750 per ton, driven by export and biofuel uncertainty.

  Written by

  Dawson Schmitt

  ·

  September 8, 2025

  Canola futures have been surging for technical support over the past week after building up bearish momentum over the past two months. 

  November canola rose slightly on Monday morning, trading around C$620 per ton, with spillover support coming from the soybean oil market. 

  November canola declined for a second consecutive week last week. Prices responded negatively to China’s recent tariff proposals on canola imports from Canada. A trader told Bloomberg that China extended its investigation into alleged canola dumping by six months, which could allow the two countries to reach an agreement. 

  Prices are about 17 percent lower than their June peak of about C$750 per ton. Biofuel uncertainty since the EPA’s mandate proposal earlier this summer has put pressure on feedstock markets. 

  Soybean oil will likely benefit more than foreign imports due to trade spats between the U.S. and key trading partners. 

  Technically, prices could find support at current levels, but the better support may not come until around C$600 or the December low around C$579.

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  PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.