Crude oil and fuel prices have shown little signs of cooling off since the conflict between the U.S. and Iran sent shockwaves through global energy markets. May WTI crude oil futures traded $5 higher on Thursday to over $95 a barrel. Prices are well below highs posted earlier this month but remain 67 percent higher since the start of the year. Diesel futures are up about 100 percent year-to-date.

The crude-diesel crack spread, which reflects refining margins, rallied sharply this month. When crack spreads rise, it typically means refined products are increasing faster than crude oil. The sharp rise signals inflation pressures, which has offered support for grain markets.

Traders have remained in a risk-on mood despite conflicting comments from the White House. President Trump said Iran is begging to work out a peace deal. Separately, the president threatened to intensify military action if the latest talks failed.

The White House has attempted to talk prices lower, as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said during a Cabinet meeting that the oil market is well supplied despite trade disruptions.

Retail diesel prices marched higher again this week. Weekly data from the Energy Information Administration showed that prices rose 30.4 cents from the previous week to an average of $5.375 per gallon. Prices were also $1.81 higher than a year ago and the highest since July 2022.

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