EIA dramatically increases crude oil price outlook

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Crude oil and other energy markets continued their volatile trade this week as the U.S. continued strong attacks on Iranian targets. Iran said a truce depends on the U.S. and Israel pledging no future strikes.

Global leaders have announced potential plans to release oil reserves to help quell price gains. President Trump has yet to indicate if the U.S. will participate in an international plan to release 400 million barrels from reserves.

April WTI crude oil futures were trading over 4 percent higher on Wednesday leading up to the close. Prices have been chopping below $90 a barrel since plunging from Monday’s overnight highs near $119.50.

The Energy Information Administration raised its average crude oil price projection sharply higher for 2026, according to its monthly Short Term Energy Outlook. The EIA raised the average projection from $53.42 a barrel to $73.61. The average projection for 2027 was also raised from $49.34 per barrel to $60.81.

The agency expects global production to outpace consumption once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

Upward pressure will likely remain on refined products for the short-term. April heating oil futures are trading 42 percent higher so far this month. Retail diesel prices jumped 96.2 cents higher over the past week to an average of $4.859 per gallon, according to the EIA on Monday. Prices are also $1.277 higher than the same week last year.

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