Brazil’s summer soybean harvest is approaching the halfway point, and early harvest reports are showing issues with yields.

Brazilian consultancy firm AgRural lowered its 2025/26 soybean forecast to 178 million metric tons (MMT), a 3 MMT reduction from its previous forecast.

The firm cited drought-related yield losses in Southern Brazil, particularly in Rio Grande do Sul. That region accounts for about a quarter of the country’s soybean production. Some of the losses were partially offset by higher yields in other states.

Southern Brazil experienced below-average rainfall throughout February, resulting in significant moisture deficits. Forecasts point toward drier-than-average weather for the next two weeks that could continue to impact crop forecasts, Eric Snodgrass with Nutrien Ag Solutions said in a weekly weather interview.

The country is still expecting a record crop despite the reduction. Output is forecast to increase by about 3 percent from the previous season, driven by record acreage and strong yields.

As of last week, just 39 percent of the soybean crop had been harvested, compared to 50 percent a year ago. That is also the slowest harvest pace since the 2020/21 season.

Brazil’s safrinha corn planting was 66 percent complete as of last week. That compared to 50 percent the previous week, but was behind the 80 percent pace seen the same week last year.

AgRural said the delays in the soybean harvest have slowed winter corn planting. Producers have been accelerating their pace as best they can to avoid planting too much outside of the ideal window.

Consultancy firm Safras and Mercado lowered its Brazilian corn production forecast to 141.71 MMT, down from the previous estimate of 142.88 MMT. Unlike the USDA and Conab, the firm forecasts production to be higher than the previous season.

Snodgrass said the weather will be important to watch for the developing corn crop over the next three months. He said there is evidence that the weather through March, April, and May could be drier than models are currently predicting.

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