U.S. ethanol production fell 1.6 percent last week to an average of 1.095 million barrels a day for the week ending Feb. 27, according to the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. Output was slightly higher than the same week last year and remained at a record for the week.

Estimated corn crushed for ethanol during the week was about 105.7 million bushels. Cumulative crushings for the marketing year reached 2.742 billion bushels, 49 percent of the USDA’s current crush target.

Pace analysis suggests the USDA’s current target of 5.6 billion bushels is too high. That challenges the narrative that corn ethanol use could be at or just under a record this season. Ethanol production efficiencies have allowed processors to crush fewer bushels to produce more ethanol over the past year.

The USDA reported that corn crushed for ethanol in January totaled 461 million bushels, down 1.5 percent from the same period a year ago. Total crushings for the 2025/26 marketing year reached 2.32 billion bushels, unchanged from a year ago.

Ethanol inventories jumped by 2.7 percent last week to 26.34 million barrels. Inventories were 3.5 percent lower than the same week last year but 4.2 percent above the five-year average. Record production has kept inventories above previous years. Still, stocks holding below a year ago shows that demand has kept supplies from swelling to far above average levels.

Ethanol exports averaged 217,000 barrels a day, compared to 141,000 barrels the previous week and 123,000 the same week last year. The average daily volume last week was a record for the week for data going back to 2023. That was also the third-largest average in the series.

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