The U.S. is currently on track to export a record 3.20 billion bushels of corn during the 2025/26 marketing year, surpassing the previous record set in the 2024/25 season. Despite the expected nearly 18 percent increase, pace data suggests the USDA still has more room to raise the forecast.
The USDA’s export sales report for the week ending Jan. 15 showed that sales topped 4 million metric tons (157.4 million bushels), a marketing-year high and the highest week since March 2021. That brought total commitments to 2.21 billion bushels, 33 percent above last year and 50 percent higher than the five-year average.
Looking at historical percentages, accumulated exports reached 39 percent of the USDA’s target. That compares to just a 30 percent target pace the previous marketing year and for the five-year average. Sales for the rest of the marketing year need to average 32 million bushels to meet the current target, which is well below the current average of 67 million bushels.
The historical percentages alone give the agency permission to increase the total target. Historically, corn export sales go through a seasonal lull through the spring and summer months. That may cause the USDA to exercise caution on additional upward adjustments to the forecast.
All else unchanged, a higher U.S. corn export forecast would tighten the corn balance sheet from the current 2.23 billion bushels, though the USDA would more likely adjust feed usage lower to compensate for higher exports.
Where Is U.S. Corn Headed?
Total exports through November continued to grow year-over-year, with shipments 1.6 percent higher, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Growth has slowed over the past couple of years, though Mexico has remained the largest buyer of U.S. corn due to strong demand and poor domestic production.
Meanwhile, substantial growth compared to last season has been observed for exports to Japan, South Korea, as well as the rest of the world. Exports to Japan more than doubled during the same period, rising 111 percent to 3.42 MMT. Shipments to Colombia rose 17 percent to 2.2 MMT, while volumes to South Korea increased 6-fold to 1.92 MMT.
Additionally, exports to the rest of the world outside of those four countries saw 156 percent year-over-year growth. A record crop kept U.S. supplies competitively priced compared to other global exporters.
U.S. corn exports remain on a record-setting trajectory, supported by exceptional sales from broad-based demand growth among key global buyers. While seasonal slowing may warrant some caution from the USDA, current commitments support upward revisions to the current export forecast.
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