Brazilian beef production reached a record 12.35 million metric tons (MMT) in 2025, surpassing the U.S. as the No. 1 producer in the world. Output rose 4.2 percent from the previous year, according to the most recent USDA data, driven by strong herd liquidation and feedlot efficiencies.

Brazil entered 2026 holding a vital role in global production as producers shift toward more efficient production practices. Brazilian producers have been shortening lifespans of cattle over the past decade to capitalize on feedlot production. Farms have shortened beef cattle lifespans from five years to just 3 years, a commercial feedlot manager told Reuters.

Brazil’s beef production is expected to fall by 2 percent in 2026 following four consecutive years of higher female cattle slaughter, according to analysts at Itaú BBA bank. If realized, that would be the first drop in production since 2021. Previous USDA analysis suggests that producers have begun holding back heifers for breeding to rebuild herds, leading to fewer available cattle for feedlots. That scarcity could last a few years.

Brazil also remained the largest exporter of beef, which hit a record last year. Brazil’s beef exports totaled 305,000 metric tons in December, up 51 percent from the previous year, according to Brazil’s trade ministry. Year-to-date shipments rose 30 percent from 2024 to a record 3.1 million metric tons.

China was responsible for much of that growth, as exports to the country hit a record last year. The U.S. also accounted for much of the demand despite hefty tariffs announced in August. Brazil’s beef exports are expected to stabilize this year as lower expected production offsets strong beef demand. Brazil may also have to diversify some of its exports after China imposed new tariffs on beef imports above quotas. The expectation of lower demand may also cause Brazilian meatpackers to reduce production even further than what is expected.

Implications for the U.S. Beef Market
Brazil’s production shift matters for the U.S. as domestic beef supplies remain historically tight. Ongoing U.S. herd contraction has reduced cow slaughter and increased reliance on imported lean beef, with Brazil playing a key role in filling that gap.

If Brazilian beef output declines in 2026 as expected, export availability could tighten just as U.S. production bottoms out, potentially supporting wholesale and retail beef prices. While weaker Chinese demand could redirect some Brazilian shipments to the U.S., any sustained reduction in Brazil’s exportable surplus would limit that offset. For U.S. producers, Brazil’s move from contraction toward expansion reinforces a tighter global supply outlook as multiple countries enter the early states of herd rebuilding.
—

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.