Cotton futures have been broadly consolidative this week since the USDA’s WASDE report on Monday. March cotton hovered around 64.60 cents a pound on Friday and is set to end slightly higher on the week. Prices slipped back below the December resistance levels around 65 cents after struggling to hold onto last week’s highs.

New crop December futures have been firmer than the nearby contracts heading into the new year. Prices traded above 69 cents last week before consolidating gains. The market continues to signal that there is enough cotton in the U.S. and global to meet current demand.

U.S. cotton export sales were strong last week. Sales have been keeping up with seasonal trends in recent weeks. Sales surged to 350,000 bales during the week ending Jan. 8, according to the USDA on Thursday. Meanwhile, total exports and commitments remain about 14 percent behind last year amid weaker demand from China.

Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab) lowered its 2025/26 cotton export forecast to 3.82 MMT, down from the previous estimate of 4.1 MMT. The agency has been reducing planted acreage expectations over the past couple of months. Output is expected to fall by 6.3 percent from the previous season.

Cotton planting in Mato Grosso reached 8 percent complete, compared to 14 percent the same week last year and the five-year average of 16.6 percent.

Lower Brazilian production could lend some support to the market since demand remains broadly disappointing. However, global supply and demand fundamentals suggest a well-supplied market yet.

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