Cattle futures surged on Tuesday, with attempts to break above near-term technical levels. February live cattle traded $2 higher to close at $237.27 per cwt. Prices are testing last week’s highs, which could lead to an upside breakout.
Fed cash cattle trade was uneven last week, with negotiated sales in Kansas steady to $1 higher at $232. Sales in Nebraska were uneven at mostly $232. Dressed sales were $5 higher at $365.
Boxed beef prices were slightly higher to start the week. The choice cutout rose by 91 cents at midday to $358 per cwt. Prices have been trending higher since the new year after a disappointing December.
March feeder cattle futures traded $6.20 higher to close at $362.37 on Tuesday. Prices were able to rally above last week’s highs, helped by an upside technical breakout.
Cash feeder cattle prices marched higher last week, with steers and heifers averaging $7-$15 higher. Some auctions saw feeders trade $20-$30 higher than the previous week. Demand remained good with plenty of willing buyers. Even more impressive was that feeder auction receipts were the highest since the beginning of 2023.
Feeder cattle auctions kicked off this week on a positive note. Feeder steers weighing 400 pounds went for $20 higher than last week at the Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Missouri.
Yesterday’s WASDE report showed that the USDA raised its 2026 beef production forecast to 25.802 billion pounds, up from 25.79 billion in December. The agency cited heavier dressed weights, which are expected to offset lower cattle slaughter in the second half of the year.
Still, production is expected to be the lowest since 2017 amid tight cattle supplies. The USDA’s cattle inventory report at the end of the month will provide an indication of the number of cattle available for placement this year, as well as intentions to retain heifers for breeding.
The beef import forecast was raised for 2025 based on recent trade data. Imports were also raised for 2026 due to expectations of higher shipments from Australia and New Zealand. Beef exports were lowered for 2025 and 2026 based on recent trade data and expectations of higher global competition.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.