The USDA updated its beef and pork production and trade forecasts on Tuesday, offering an increase in the beef outlook, while lower pork.

Production
U.S. beef production for 2025 was raised to 26.02 billion pounds, up 194 million pounds from November due to a faster slaughter pace for both non-fed and fed cattle during the fourth quarter. Higher dressed weights are also expected to help boost production.

Production for 2026 was also raised to 25.79 billion pounds, up 335 million from last month. The increase was primarily due to higher dressed weights. However, beef production is forecast at the lowest since 2016.

The USDA lowered its cattle price forecast for 2025 and 2026 based on recent price data, as well as the announcement of the Tyson plant closure that will reduce slaughter capacity early next year.

Pork production was lowered for 2025 to 27.48 billion pounds due to a slower slaughter rate based on data through early December, the USDA noted. Production for 2026 was left unchanged at 27.49 billion pounds.

Pork production is expected to outpace beef production for a third consecutive year in 2026 due to dwindling cattle supplies.

Trade
The 2025 beef import forecast was reduced slightly on official trade data reported through August. The beef import forecast was raised sharply for 2026 as the Trump administration removed tariffs on beef products from key beef suppliers.

Beef exports for 2025 were reduced based on recent trade data, which is expected to carry over into 2026. Pork exports for this year were also reduced slightly as lower third-quarter shipments were only partially offset by higher expected demand during the fourth quarter.

However, stronger demand is expected for 2026, with the USDA raising the export forecast.
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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.