Heating oil prices surged this week as global factors continued to prop up U.S. prices. January heating oil futures, a proxy for diesel, rose to their highest in more than a year on Tuesday. Prices reversed much of those losses here on Wednesday. However, upward pressure remains intact.

One global factor has been declining Russian exports. Bloomberg reported that shipments from the country sank to the lowest level since before the Russia-Ukraine war began in early 2022. Part of that has to do with ongoing drone strikes on Russian export infrastructure.

Domestically, U.S. diesel inventories have been at seasonally low levels since this spring. Production has recovered in recent weeks, which could support inventory levels. Meanwhile, U.S. imports have been trending lower compared to recent years. Exports have largely been higher.

Rising futures prices have seeped into the retail market this fall. On-highway diesel prices rose 3.1 cents this week to an average of $3.868 per gallon, according to weekly EIA data. Prices were also 37.7 cents higher than the same week last year.

Meanwhile, crude oil prices continued to chop around in a sideways range. January futures have broadly traded around the key $60 level, though futures broke below the area early this morning.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.