Cotton futures resumed their decline late this week after failing to hold onto their one-month highs. The nearby December contract traded nearly 60 points lower by midday on Friday to just below 64 cents a pound. Prices traded below the old “Liberation Day” low of 64.24. 

The March contract is becoming more active as first notice day approaches for the December contract. March prices are less than $1 away from their contract lows of 64.45 set on Oct. 14. Futures may still try to test that level before solidifying a bottom. 

It will be difficult to tell if fund traders are adding length to their short positions this week due to the absence of the Commitment of Traders report. Rising open interest in the March supports the recent rejection of last week’s rally. 

Fundamentally, the expectation of weaker export demand is bearish. Cotton has not been mentioned among the recent U.S. crop purchases by China. However, current U.S. export demand remains unknown due to the lack of the weekly export sales reports. 

Meanwhile, Brazil’s cotton exports totaled 294,000 metric tons in October, up 4.6 percent year-over-year and a record for the month. Total shipments for the marketing year (Aug-Oct) are running about 2 percent behind last year following a slower start to the season. 

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.