Canola futures struggle this fall amid low exports

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Canola prices have faced immense pressure over the past few months, exhibiting more weakness compared to vegetable oil competitors. The more active January canola contract traded about $3 lower on Tuesday to C$627 per ton. Prices have struggled to sustain gains after posting six month lows on Oct. 1. 

Technical indicators have been pointing lower. The 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average earlier this month. Today, the 100-day average crossed below the 200-day, confirming the negative sentiment. Additionally, spreads have been weak, given limited export activity. 

Canadian officials are still in talks with Chinese counterparts over trade. The country has been working on a deal to get China to renew significant tariffs on canola imports from Canada. Exports this season are running at about 955,300 metric tons, compared to 2.3 million metric tons the same period last year, according to the Canadian Grain Commission. 

The canola harvest is nearly finished. Precipitation forecasts should favor farmers finishing up in the field, though there are isolated showers moving through Saskatchewan today. 

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.

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