Record soybean crushings in Argentina, Brazil, and the U.S. have been driving global soybean meal prices to multi-year lows, resulting in cheaper feed costs for livestock producers. Soybean crush expansion has been driven by global biofuel policies, resulting in increased demand for soybean oil feedstocks and excess soybean meal.

Record crush to continue

Argentina, Brazil, and the U.S. represent about 85 percent of global soybean meal exports. 

Soybean crush among the three countries totaled 14 million metric tons (MMT) in July, according to government and industry data compiled by Trader PhD. Volumes were 3.4 percent lower than in July 2024. Sharply lower volumes in Argentina led the year-over-year decline, while volumes were higher in Brazil and the U.S. compared to the previous month. 

Still, total crushings since the beginning of the year are running 1 percent ahead of 2024, resulting in increased production of soybean meal. The rapid expansion in biomass diesel production since 2021 has led to a significant demand for soybean oil, particularly in the U.S. Consequently, higher crushings have resulted in record soybean meal production. 

Global soybean meal production in a clear uptrend

Global soybean meal production is estimated to have reached a record 278.6 MMT during the 2024/25 marketing year, and is forecast to rise another 3.3 percent during the 2025/26 season, according to data from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service. 

Soybean meal export prices recover from multi-year lows

Global soybean meal export prices trended lower for much of the past two years in response to record crush volumes. U.S. FOB prices have remained higher than those of their Brazilian and Argentine competitors, largely due to higher shipping costs and stronger domestic demand for livestock feed. 

U.S. prices recovered in August and September following a near-term shortfall in July inventories despite a record crush pace this season. Five consecutive monthly records of U.S. soybean meal exports this season left end users short-handed for a brief period. Futures prices continued to post contract lows due to large global supplies despite tighter domestic inventories. 

Moving forward, low Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans is expected to continue exerting downward pressure on meal futures and spot prices, as domestic processors maintain a competitive edge throughout the harvest season. That should give livestock producers additional pricing opportunities. However, that may hinge on China remaining absent from U.S. soy purchases.

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