Cotton futures traded fairly steady on Thursday as prices consolidated above support levels. December cotton traded as high as 66.36 cents a pound before slipping back to unchanged by the afternoon. Futures have extended their downtrend since April, continually posting lower highs and lower lows.

So far, the major support area around 66 has held after rallying from the level in August and testing it in September. However, prices have been hugging the support area after slipping from their three-week high last week. There has been little reason for the market to reverse the current trend fundamentally. Additionally, harvest in the cotton belt could limit price gains. 

The USDA’s latest export sales report brought more disappointing numbers this week. The agency reported that upland cotton export sales for the 2025/26 season fell to 86,100 bales, down from 186,100 bales the previous week. India was the top buyer for the week, followed by Turkey and Bangladesh. Sales to Vietnam declined significantly, which dragged total volumes lower. Total exports and commitments are running about 18 percent lower than the same week last year and are the slowest pace since the 2015/16 season.

There are signs of the global balance sheet tightening. Cotlook lowered its global surplus forecast for 2025/26 to 523,000 metric tons, compared to the previous estimate of 637,000 metric tons. The lower forecast was due to lower production expectations and higher consumption.

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PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.