The 2024/25 cotton marketing year wrapped up at the end of July. Highlighting the season were higher supplies, lower demand, and lower prices. 

Trade

Exports account for about 84 percent of U.S. cotton demand, a historically high percentage, as production efficiencies outpace domestic demand. Still, exports largely declined since hitting a peak in the 2020/21 marketing year. 

U.S. cotton exports finished the marketing year with 12.4 million bales shipped between August 2024 and July 2025, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Total shipments were up 4.7 percent from the previous season, as demand from other countries helped offset lower purchases from China. 

Vietnam was the most important market to help boost U.S. shipments over the past season, which more than doubled in 2024/25 and represented about 25 percent of total U.S. exports. Shipments to Pakistan rose 85 percent, driven by lower domestic production and strong consumption, while higher consumption lifted shipments to Turkey by 109 percent.

Notably, exports to China fell 83 percent from the previous season. Lower exports to China have been a result of the country’s high domestic production, large inventories, and weakening demand in the textile sector. 

For the current 2025/26 marketing year, U.S. cotton export sales commitments are off to a slow start. Total commitments as of Aug. 28 reached 3.41 million bales, down 23 percent from the same pace last year. Commitments marked the slowest pace since the 2015/16 season. 

Brazil has also had to diversify its cotton export program due to lower purchases from China. Brazilian cotton exports ended the marketing year at 13.24 million bales, up nearly eight percent from the previous season. The export campaign saw a nearly 200 percent increase to Pakistan, a 59 percent increase to Turkey, and a 46 percent jump in shipments to Bangladesh. 

Brazil is forecast to export a record 14.1 million bales in the 2025/26 marketing year. 

Brazil has been expanding its cotton acreage over the past few years. Targeting many of the same key markets could intensify competition for a shrinking pool of buyers.

U.S. Outlook

Weak economics and unfavorable weather are expected to drive 2025/26 cotton production down to 13.21 million bales, down 8.3 percent from the previous season. In August, the USDA cut its production forecast significantly due to higher expected abandonment in the Southwest. 

The USDA estimates cotton ending stocks at the end of the 2024/25 marketing year totaled 4 million bales, up 27 percent from the previous season and the highest since 2019/20. The stocks-to-use ratio, which measures the relationship between supply and demand, is estimated at 29.4 percent. While not as high as it was earlier in the season, the high ratio signals current supplies are burdensome for demand, which has kept pressure on the cotton market over the past year. 

U.S. cotton prices experienced lackluster price action throughout the 2024/25 marketing year. Futures have been stuck in a wide trading range since December, broadly contained by increasing global production and slowing domestic demand among key economies. 

U.S. export commitments at a 10-year low signal further struggles for the market. Limited purchases from China will force exporters to compete for buyers in developing countries. Future trade dynamics will hinge heavily on China’s production and import needs, alongside demand from other major buyers.

—

PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. FUTURES TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL INVESTORS.